Notes on the race:
If you remember when Burt Reynolds was king of the box-office -- well, then, you remember the period in which Boogie Nights is set. This is another irresistible scenario: Once on top of the world, Burt's movie career slid into the dumps in the '80s and '90s.  He's been doing terrific supporting work (in Striptease, a bad movie, and in Citizen Ruth, a good movie nobody saw), but Boogie Nights finally offered him the "comeback" he needed -- and the Academy (a whole pavilion/auditorium full of huge but shaky egoes) loves a comeback.  In the Smokey and the Bandit days, he was a movie star; now he's back, and better than ever, as a character actor.  He's collected all the awards so far; I don't think they'll deny him the Oscar (though Lauren Bacall looked like a sure thing in '96, too).  Forster is another great comeback story, but his career doesn't have the same "tragic arc" as Burt's, since he was never on top in the first place.  Williams is good (you occasionally forget he's Robin Williams -- and he did win the SAG award), so he's a contender; but Hopkins has already won (and no actor in a Spielberg movie has ever received an Oscar); and Kinnear does an impressive "gay next-door neighbor" (a Hollywood favorite character part), but I think everybody's rooting for Burt. I am.

Winner marked in blue.

• Other awards: In the last few years, the Golden Globes and Los Angeles Film Critics Association winners have been "leading indicators" (as those in the equally precise science of economics say) of the Academy's picks.
  GG -- Golden Globes (yeah, they're a joke, but they do sometimes coincide with the Academy)
  DG -- Directors Guild of America (directors only)
  WG -- Writers Guild of America (screenplays only)
  SA -- Screen Actors Guild (actors only)

PG -- Producers Guild of America (producers only -- but, remember, they're the ones who take home the best picture statuette)
LA -- Los Angeles Film Critics Association
NY -- New York Film Critics Circle
NS -- National Society of Film Critics

• Vegas odds:  Poor Lenny DelGenio. The guy's been picking Oscar odds for 17 years (last year he was with Bally's; this year it's the New Frontier Hotel and Casino), but he only does 'em once -- the day the nominations are announced -- and then brags about being right (in the major categories only) a less-than-impressive 60 percent of the time!  Nevertheless, for what it's worth...
• Bacon factor:  Computed with the invaluable assistance of the Oracle of Bacon at Virginia, the "Bacon factor" has never been shown to have statistical significance in choosing the Oscars.  Nevertheless, I knew you'd want to know.  This number indicates how many steps removed from Kevin Bacon a particular actor may be.  A Bacon factor of "1" means the person has actually worked with Kevin himself.  A Bacon factor of "2" means the person has worked with someone who has worked with Kyra's hubby.  And so on -- but these days (especially thanks to "Sleepers," which had everybody in it) you'd have to get really obscure to find anyone with a Bacon factor of more than 2.
• Other factors:  These are just some of the other things that have been shown (or at least theorized) to affect the Academy's decisions. (For example: historical epics tend to win; comedies don't.)
  FC -- this indicates the results of Film Comment's annual "Oscar Predix" poll of 11 esteemed movie experts.  I've indicated here with a number (say, 10/11) only the predictions that are clear favorites or split decisions.  For the full breakdown, including who voted for what, you'll have to check out Film Comment, or its website at the Film Society of Lincoln Center.   FC's  "dream team" (and remember, these are predictions, not preferences) is: David Ansen (Newsweek), Sheila Benson (Microsoft Cinemania), Manohla Dargis (L.A. Weekly), John Hartl (Seattle Times), Dave Kehr (New York Daily News), Todd McCarthy (Variety), Andrew Sarris (New York Observer), Richard Schickel (Time), Gavin Smith (Film Comment), Anne Thompson (Premiere), Kenneth Turan (Los Angeles Times).